Sectarian violence breaks out

Captain Ed reports of sectarian violence

Sectarian violence broke out today, with crowds swept by religious and historical fervor clashing openly with each other and the overwhelmed security forces that attempted to separate them. Firebombs and hand-to-hand fighting occurred in front of one of the historical shrines of the city as an unprecedented level of dissension threatened to open up old wounds and begin an unravelling of civil accord.

Ah, but then Captain Ed informs us that this is occuring today in Dublin, Ireland. So, Captain Ed concludes

That also points me back to Iraq. Despite the best attempt so far by outside provocateurs, the bombing of the Askariya shrine in Samarra has not resulted in a civil war. Iraqi bloggers such as Iraq the Model and Healing Iraq report that violence continues, but that the Sunnis have not risen up at all; they have not taken advantage of this supposed opening by launching their anticipated attack on the central government. Imams of both sects have called for a stop to the violence and unity in the face of foreign attacks by Zarqawi terrorists.

Civil war remains a distinct possibility, but it has not yet happened. It hasn't happened in Ireland or in Northern Ireland, despite the kind of hatreds that have existed for centuries in those places as well. Not all violence is war, and not all violence means defeat. Insurgents and provocateurs sometimes succeed in their aims, but it is still too early to declare them the victors in Iraq as it is in Dublin.

I do think that as we all try to think of situations that are historically similar to Iraq, Ireland and Northern Ireland is the closest that can be found.