The Day Before the Election
Tomorrow I will be poll watching at a precinct right up the street from where I live, so I might not have time to provide comments in real time tomorrow. Thus, I thought I would post my thoughts about this election tonight.
First, the local situation here in Colorado: I went to the "training" (it was really a rally) for the 96 hour get-out-the-vote volunteers at the Denver Marriott last Friday evening. And there were so many volunteers for this effort that the Colorado GOP had to rent a second ballroom just to hold all of the volunteers. Lots of enthusiasm. Radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt was the one of the guest speakers, as were Colorado Governor Bill Owens, US Senator Wayne Allard, US Senate Candidate Pete Coors, US congressionmen Tom Tancredo and Bob Beauprez.
I went to the Denver GOP Headquarters this afternoon to pick up my packet of information for my precinct and the place was packed tight with volunteers making get-out-the-vote phone calls.
The bottom line is this: If Bush loses this election, it won't be due to a lack of enthusiasm among his base of supporters.
But this election does seem to be closer than I had thought it would be back in late January when it became apparent that John Kerry would be the Democrat nominee. Back then I predicted a 52 to 46 percent victory for Bush against Kerry, with Bush winning all of the swing states that are being closely contested. Such a sweep could still happen, since there are polls [quiet, Jamie :)] that "prove" Bush is winning in all of these states (in addition to those that "prove" Bush is losing in them).
Speaking to a couple of GOP volunteers last Friday has convinced me that the Bush campaign well organized in Ohio. An attorney made a very persuasive case to me that Ohio is a state where the Republicans win if they get their voters to the polls.
So, if you press me to make a revised prediction on the outcome of this election, this is it: Bush wins 29 of the 30 states he won in the 2000 election, all except forFlorida New Hampshire, which gives Bush 274 electoral votes and that's enough for him to be reelected. But I also think Bush will win in Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin. My guess is that the stuff about Hawaii, New Jersey and Maryland being close is proven mostly wrong and Kerry barely wins Minnesota, Maine and Pennsylvania.
What are your thoughts?
First, the local situation here in Colorado: I went to the "training" (it was really a rally) for the 96 hour get-out-the-vote volunteers at the Denver Marriott last Friday evening. And there were so many volunteers for this effort that the Colorado GOP had to rent a second ballroom just to hold all of the volunteers. Lots of enthusiasm. Radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt was the one of the guest speakers, as were Colorado Governor Bill Owens, US Senator Wayne Allard, US Senate Candidate Pete Coors, US congressionmen Tom Tancredo and Bob Beauprez.
I went to the Denver GOP Headquarters this afternoon to pick up my packet of information for my precinct and the place was packed tight with volunteers making get-out-the-vote phone calls.
The bottom line is this: If Bush loses this election, it won't be due to a lack of enthusiasm among his base of supporters.
But this election does seem to be closer than I had thought it would be back in late January when it became apparent that John Kerry would be the Democrat nominee. Back then I predicted a 52 to 46 percent victory for Bush against Kerry, with Bush winning all of the swing states that are being closely contested. Such a sweep could still happen, since there are polls [quiet, Jamie :)] that "prove" Bush is winning in all of these states (in addition to those that "prove" Bush is losing in them).
Speaking to a couple of GOP volunteers last Friday has convinced me that the Bush campaign well organized in Ohio. An attorney made a very persuasive case to me that Ohio is a state where the Republicans win if they get their voters to the polls.
So, if you press me to make a revised prediction on the outcome of this election, this is it: Bush wins 29 of the 30 states he won in the 2000 election, all except for
What are your thoughts?
posted by Steel Monkey at 11/01/2004 06:46:00 PM
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