The Electoral College in the 2004 Presidential Election

270 electoral votes, a majority of the total of 538 electoral votes available, are needed to win the presidential election. Let's take a look at each of the 50 states (plus the District of Columbia, also known as Washington DC) and consider which candidate might win these electoral votes on November 2nd. (I am basing the following analysis entirely on the 2000 presidential election returns. You may have seen state polls that contradict this analysis.)

As I see it the 51 states and districts can be divided up as follows:

15 John Kerry States worth 200 Electoral Votes.
12 Swing States worth 138 Electoral Votes.
24 George W. Bush States worth 200 Electoral Votes.

I have defined swing states to be those states where the 2000 presidential vote for Al Gore and George W. Bush differed by less than 5 percent of the vote. The reason why many pundits pay attention to national polls rather than state polls is because most of the swing states are likely to vote for the winning candidate if the winning candidate wins the national popular vote by a few percentage points. These swing states are so similar, in terms of their voting patterns, to the nation as a whole that a single national poll can provide more data for a pundit than a few state polls.

12 Solid John Kerry States - 168 Electoral Votes
In the following states Al Gore beat George W. Bush by over 9 percentage points in the 2000 presidential race.

Washington DC - 3 electoral votes
Rhode Island - 4 electoral votes
Massachusetts - 12 electoral votes
New York - 31 electoral votes
Hawaii - 4 electoral votes
Connecticut - 7 electoral votes
Maryland - 10 electoral votes
New Jersey - 15 electoral votes
Delaware - 3 electoral votes
California - 55 electoral votes
Illinois - 21 electoral votes
Vermont - 3 electoral votes

3 Marginal John Kerry States - 32 Electoral Votes
In the following states Al Gore beat George W. Bush by between 5 and 6 percentage points in the 2000 presidential race.

Washington State - 11 electoral votes
Maine - 4 electoral votes
Michigan - 17 electoral votes

12 Swing States - 138 Electoral Votes
In the following states the vote for Al Gore and George W. Bush differed by less than 5 percentage points in the 2000 presidential race.

Pennsylvania - 21 electoral votes
Minnesota - 10 electoral votes
Oregon - 7 electoral votes
Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes
New Mexico - 5 electoral votes
Iowa - 7 electoral votes
Florida - 27 electoral votes
New Hampshire - 4 electoral votes
Missouri - 11 electoral votes
Ohio - 20 electoral votes
Nevada - 5 electoral votes
Tennessee - 11 electoral votes

4 Marginal George W. Bush States - 30 Electoral Votes
In the following states George W. Bush received between 50 and 52 percent of the vote and Al Gore received less than 46 percent of the vote in the 2000 presidential race.

Arkansas - 6 electoral votes
Arizona - 10 electoral votes
West Virginia - 5 electoral votes
Colorado - 9 electoral votes

20 Solid George W. Bush States - 170 Electoral Votes
In the following states George W. Bush received over 52 percent of the vote in the 2000 presidential race.

Louisiana - 9 electoral votes
Virginia - 13 electoral votes
Georgia - 15 electoral votes
North Carolina - 15 electoral votes
Alabama - 9 electoral votes
Kentucky - 8 electoral votes
Indiana - 11 electoral votes
South Carolina - 8 electoral votes
Mississippi - 6 electoral votes
Kansas - 6 electoral votes
Texas - 34 electoral votes
Oklahoma - 7 electoral votes
Montana - 3 electoral votes
South Dakota - 3 electoral votes
North Dakota - 3 electoral votes
Alaska - 3 electoral votes
Nebraska - 5 electoral votes
Idaho - 4 electoral votes
Utah - 5 electoral votes
Wyoming - 3 electoral votes