Lessons from history

A few days ago, Condoleezza Rice delivered a speech at Princeton university. The most important lesson to be drawn from this speech, can be summarized into two simple words: be patient!

The inspiration for this lesson, as for so many things in life, is history. Let us go back to the years shortly after the end of WWII. The Cold War, the conflict between freedom and communism, broke out. The signs for the outcome of that conflict didn’t seem favourable.

After all, in 1946, the Germany Reconstruction was still failing and Germans were still starving. Japan lay prostrate. In 1947, there was a civil war in Greece. In 1948, Germany was permanently divided by the Berlin Crisis; Czechoslovakia was lost to a communist coup. And in 1949, the Soviet Union exploded a nuclear weapon five years ahead of schedule; and the Chinese communists won their war. In 1950, a brutal war broke on the Korean Peninsula.

60 years later, we know better. Germany and Japan have become prosperous, democratic countries. Germany is reunited. The Czech republic and Slovakia, just like the other countries of Eastern Europe have escaped the domination of the Soviets and have joined the European Union. The Sovietunion is no more. China has a capitalist economy and a communist government. South Korea has also become a democratic and prosperous country after the civil war.

Who would have imagined that? Even, on the eve of the revolutions of 1989 no one thought this would be possible. The years after WOII were also the years of the Marshall-plan and the establishment of NATO. Those decisions have laid the path to success many years later.

Right now, we are living turbulent times: terrorist attacks happen regularly like the one this weekend on the island of Bali - again. In Iraq, there is talk of civil war, Islamic theocracy and another Vietnam quagmire. Success in the war against islamofascism seems far away. Yet there have been big successes: Afghanistan en Iraq have been liberated from the domination of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein, the influence of Syria in Lebanon has been considerably reduced, in Egypt and Saudi-Arabia the first very timid steps toward democratization have been made.

Of course many challenges remain: the violence in Iraq and Iran’s nuclear program, just to name two of them. But also there progress has been made: Al Qaeda in Iraq more and more feels the pressure of the coalition. Some say that Zarqawi, their leader, cannot stay in Iraq forever and will be forced to leave, e.g. for lawless Somalia, where Al Qaeda is establishing a presence. Concerning Iran, the international atomic agency has adopted a resolution which allows to eventually refer Iran to the Security Council. You could say this is insufficient, but at least progress is being made.

So patience is everything. These are turbulent times, on the way there will be setbacks. But, to conclude with the words of Dr. Rice

if you are true to your values, if you are certain of your values, and if you act upon them with confidence and with strength, it is possible to have an outcome where democracy spreads and peace and liberty reign.

History has learnt that it can be done.

Update 03/10/05: following the terrorist attacks on Bali, Mark Steyn again says - to those who would have forgotten - what it is all about for the terrorists: "the Islamist way or no way" (hat tip: LGF)