Stalemate in Germany
Michael from Downeastblog earlier on did an excellent preview on the parliamentary elections in Germany. What can we say now that the elections have taken place?
The elections have turned out into a stalemate. The red-green majority has been broken, but a coalition between CDU-CSU and the pro-market FDP has no majority either.
The CDU-CSU doesn’t have the result that was predicted by the pollsters, it has even done worse than during the previous elections. The SPD has lost, as expected; the greens have lost a bit as well. The Linkspartei has performed well, like the pro-market FDP, which has again become the biggest of the smaller parties.
The traditional big parties have lost votes to the extremes of the political spectrum. The SPD has lost votes to a party that consists, on the one hand, of the PDS, the successor of the SED, the former East-German unity party, and, on the other hand, of a group of SPD-dissidents, led by former SPD bigwig Oskar Lafontaine. The CDU-CSU, headed by the uninspiring Angela Merkel has not managed to persuade the voters of its alternative, contrary to the more reform-minded FDP. Germany seems to be split between those that want to keep what they have at all cost and those that are aware of the need of reform.
What are the possibilities?
- The creation of a big coalition will be difficult: Merkel had excluded this before the elections and now chancellor Schröder says that his party will not participate in a government led by Merkel, although the CDU-CSU is the biggest formation and thus in principle has the right to deliver the chancellor. Both leaders have already claimed the post of chancellor.
- Adding the FDP to red-green or completing black-yellow with green. The FDP has already refused to help the current government out. Whether the greens want to form a Jamaica-coalition with black-yellow is not clear, but not straightforward.
- Another possibility is a minority government that seeks support where and whenever it can. A special variant of this scenario is a red-green minority government, supported by the Linkspartei. The Linkspartei has already ruled this out and has said that it will not vote for Schröder as chancellor.
- What is also possible if there is no government within a month is a new election. If this scenario repeats itself, then, after a third election, Merkel can be chosen as chancellor, if the Linkspartei abstains from voting, with a simple – not an absolute – majority of CDU-CSU and FDP. But by then the cards can be totally different of course.
It doesn’t have to come that way: what politicians say before the elections and on election night, should be taken with a grain of salt. It is part of the strategic power game that is being played. Now the parties are taking their positions to get as much as they can at the end. So it is too soon to rule out a big coalition or a multi-coloured coalition.
But what we can say with certainty, is that a black-yellow coalition is impossible. Such a coalition would have offered the best opportunity for more pro-market reform (including the introduction of a flat tax) and for a more pro-American stance. The accession of Turkey to the EU would also have been put in the freezer by now. Let’s wait and see now what happens. A return to a big coalition – the only time such a coalition ruled Germany, at the end of the sixties, was not a success – or the experiment of a three-coloured government. Both formulas do not carry a promise of stability and action which is just what Germany needs right now. So it hasn’t been a good election result for Germany ánd Europe.
PS. In the meantime, Michael has offered his own two cents about the election result.
Other highlights of the day:
- the successful parliamentary elections have hardly been overshadowed by Taliban-violence as the media seem to think.
- The hardly covered agreement with North Korea that, in exchange for oil and security guarantees, will dismantle its nuclear program. Much will depend on the execution of this agreement of course. Just ask former president Clinton.
- It has been said before: the evidence that the Palestinians have no scrupules to stage events is mounting. You start to wonder what you can believe.
The elections have turned out into a stalemate. The red-green majority has been broken, but a coalition between CDU-CSU and the pro-market FDP has no majority either.
The CDU-CSU doesn’t have the result that was predicted by the pollsters, it has even done worse than during the previous elections. The SPD has lost, as expected; the greens have lost a bit as well. The Linkspartei has performed well, like the pro-market FDP, which has again become the biggest of the smaller parties.
The traditional big parties have lost votes to the extremes of the political spectrum. The SPD has lost votes to a party that consists, on the one hand, of the PDS, the successor of the SED, the former East-German unity party, and, on the other hand, of a group of SPD-dissidents, led by former SPD bigwig Oskar Lafontaine. The CDU-CSU, headed by the uninspiring Angela Merkel has not managed to persuade the voters of its alternative, contrary to the more reform-minded FDP. Germany seems to be split between those that want to keep what they have at all cost and those that are aware of the need of reform.
What are the possibilities?
- The creation of a big coalition will be difficult: Merkel had excluded this before the elections and now chancellor Schröder says that his party will not participate in a government led by Merkel, although the CDU-CSU is the biggest formation and thus in principle has the right to deliver the chancellor. Both leaders have already claimed the post of chancellor.
- Adding the FDP to red-green or completing black-yellow with green. The FDP has already refused to help the current government out. Whether the greens want to form a Jamaica-coalition with black-yellow is not clear, but not straightforward.
- Another possibility is a minority government that seeks support where and whenever it can. A special variant of this scenario is a red-green minority government, supported by the Linkspartei. The Linkspartei has already ruled this out and has said that it will not vote for Schröder as chancellor.
- What is also possible if there is no government within a month is a new election. If this scenario repeats itself, then, after a third election, Merkel can be chosen as chancellor, if the Linkspartei abstains from voting, with a simple – not an absolute – majority of CDU-CSU and FDP. But by then the cards can be totally different of course.
It doesn’t have to come that way: what politicians say before the elections and on election night, should be taken with a grain of salt. It is part of the strategic power game that is being played. Now the parties are taking their positions to get as much as they can at the end. So it is too soon to rule out a big coalition or a multi-coloured coalition.
But what we can say with certainty, is that a black-yellow coalition is impossible. Such a coalition would have offered the best opportunity for more pro-market reform (including the introduction of a flat tax) and for a more pro-American stance. The accession of Turkey to the EU would also have been put in the freezer by now. Let’s wait and see now what happens. A return to a big coalition – the only time such a coalition ruled Germany, at the end of the sixties, was not a success – or the experiment of a three-coloured government. Both formulas do not carry a promise of stability and action which is just what Germany needs right now. So it hasn’t been a good election result for Germany ánd Europe.
PS. In the meantime, Michael has offered his own two cents about the election result.
Other highlights of the day:
- the successful parliamentary elections have hardly been overshadowed by Taliban-violence as the media seem to think.
- The hardly covered agreement with North Korea that, in exchange for oil and security guarantees, will dismantle its nuclear program. Much will depend on the execution of this agreement of course. Just ask former president Clinton.
- It has been said before: the evidence that the Palestinians have no scrupules to stage events is mounting. You start to wonder what you can believe.
posted by Peter Fleming at 9/19/2005 03:49:00 PM
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