A Clean Election in Iraq?

Over at Iraq the Model there is concern that the major Shia political party, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), and the major Kurdish party, Kurdistani Gathering, cooperated so as to rig the much celebrated December 15th elections. The complaints are part of a post titled Baghdad for Kirkuk.

The argument goes like this: The Shia gave the Kurds a majority of the vote in the Kirkuk province in exchange for the Kurds looking the other way at Shia ballot stuffing in Baghdad.

I decided to look at the election figures myself to see if there was anything to these charges. First, I decided to total up the results among the top 10 vote getters for each province on the IECI website, where the partial December 15th election results have been made available.

Here are the nationwide results (so far) for the top seven parties:

555-(Shia) United Iraqi Alliance  4,692,282  45.12 pct
730-Kurdistani Gathering          2,207,195  21.22 pct
618-(Sunni) Iraqi Front           1,488,242  14.31 pct
731-Iraqi National List             865,615   8.32 pct
667-National Front                  409,864   3.94 pct
561-Islamic Union of Kurdistan      140,649   1.35 pct
631-Progressives                    136,204   1.31 pct

If we assume that 60 percent of the people voting on December 15th were of the Shia religious sect, that would mean that 14.88 percent of the electorate were Shia voters who voted against the major Shia party, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA). This means that about one out of every four or five ((14.88/60) = 24.80 percent) Shia voters voted against "identity politics."

However, the above results don't really get at the complaints made by the hosts of Iraq the Model.

So I decided to compare the partial December 15th results from Kirkuk and Baghdad to the January 30th results from those provinces. Here they are:

January 30, 2005 ---- Kirkuk

Kurdistani               237,006    59.67 percent
Total Votes Cast         397,224

December 15, 2005 --- Kirkuk

Kurdistani               266,737    about 51 percent
Total Votes Cast   about 500,585

From this comparison, I don't see how the Shia gave the Kurds the Kirkuk province, since the Kurds carried the province by a larger percentage margin in January than they did in December.

Let's take a look at Baghdad, the province containing the most parliamentary seats:

January 30, 2005 ---- Baghdad

United Iraqi Aliance        1,130,277    60.57 percent     
Total Votes Cast      about 1,866,021

December 15, 2005 --- Baghdad

United Iraqi Alliance       1,398,778    60.03 percent
Total Votes Cast            2,329,957

Based on these numbers, it appears that the Shia vote increased by 268,501 votes while all other parties enjoyed an increase of 215,501 votes. I don't know if this means that the Shia engaged in voter fraud in Baghdad or if they just benefited more from the reduced threat of terrorism there.

I did notice that the "anti-UIA" vote (the combined vote of all parties other than the UIA) did decline in the heavily Shia provinces like Basra and Missan. Was that a result of voter intimidation or ballot stuffing or is there a more benign explanation.

At this point I think the December 15th election in Iraq was a reasonably clean election. Some of the complaints by the other Iraqi political parties seem not to be backed up by evidence. But we still have to wait to see what the final results are, since we currently only have partial results available to us.

UPDATE:

I decided to calculate, using the highest remainder method of allocating seats by proportional representation by province, how many of the 230 seats will be awarded to each party list. (This calculation doesn't estimate the additional 45 seats that will be awarded on a nationwide basis.)

Here are my calculations:
(Percent divides the seats won by the party by 230)

List                         Seats        pct  

United Iraqi Alliance          110         47.83
Kurdinstani Gathering           43         18.70
(Sunni) Iraqi Front             35         15.22
Iraqi National List             21          9.13
National Front                   9          3.91
Islamic Union of Kurdistan       4          1.74
Liberation Gathering             3          1.30
Progressives                     1          0.43
Iraqi Turkuman Front             1          0.43
Al Rafedeen List                 1          0.43
Mithal Al Aloosi List            1          0.43
Al Ezediah Movement              1          0.43

The preliminary results don't appear as gloomy as many people have been implying.

I do realize that the Shia based UIA (list 555) isn't the only party that scares people. Some of the Sunni parties aren't exactly full of peace, love and understanding.

I had hoped that at least one secular party, not so closely tied to any particular religious sect or ethnicity, would win a significant number of seats. This has not happened. Most Iraqis are still voting on ethnic and religious lines. Perhaps an electoral system of proportional representation encourages this more than a "first past the post" electoral system.

The UIA will probably have to form a coalition. I don't think they will be able to rule all by themselves.

ANOTHER UPDATE:

Here are my estimates for all 275 seats, including the compensatory seats.

List                         Seats        pct  

United Iraqi Alliance          131         47.64
Kurdinstani Gathering           53         19.27
(Sunni) Iraqi Front             41         14.91
Iraqi National List             25          9.09
National Front                  11          4.00
Islamic Union of Kurdistan       5          1.82
Liberation Gathering             3          1.09
Progressives                     2          0.73
Iraqi Turkuman Front             1          0.36
Al Rafedeen List                 1          0.36
Mithal Al Aloosi List            1          0.36
Al Ezediah Movement              1          0.36

My calculations for the compensatory seats are very "quick and dirty." They assume that there aren't any parties that will get compensatory seats that have not already won seats at the governate level.

So, if my assumptions are wrong, the parties presented above will have even fewer seats than my estimate indicates.